File:UNO-Bevölkerungswachstumsanalyse und -prognose (1950–2050).png

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Hinweis[edit]

Russland wird komplett zu Europa gerechnet, Kasachstan und die Türkei zu Asien. Australien ist bei Ozeanien dabei.

Die angegebenen Wachstumsraten sind kontinuierlich, also mit

${\displaystyle \lambda ={\frac {\log {\frac {p_{i+1}}{p_{i}}}}{5\mathrm {a} }}}$

aus den Bevölkerungswerten p_i im 5-Jahres-Abstand berechnet.

Daten zur Migration liegen erst ab 1995 vor. Die natürlichen Wachstumsraten (ohne Migration) sind aus den absoluten Bevölkerungs- und Nettomigrationszahlen unter der Annahme kontinuierlicher Migration berechnet, also Lösung der Gleichung

${\displaystyle p_{i+1}=\left(p_{i}+{\frac {m_{i}}{\lambda \mathrm {a} }}\right)\exp \lambda 5\mathrm {a} -{\frac {m_{i}}{\lambda \mathrm {a} }}}$,

wobei m_i die zugehörigen durchschnittlichen jährlichen Migrationszahlen im jeweiligen 5-Jahres-Abschnitt sind.

SVG-Quelltext[edit]

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 <title>Bevölkerungswachstumsanalyse und -prognose 1950–2050</title>

 <desc><a xlink:href="http://esa.un.org/unpp/">Daten von der UNO</a>,
  Stand 2006 (»Revision 2006«), veröffentlicht 2007.
  Die obere und untere Variante unterscheiden sich von der mittleren Variante
  dadurch, dass die Fertilitätsrate langfristig gegen 2,35 bzw. 1,35 statt 1,85
  strebt.
  Die angegebenen Werte sind kontinuierliche Wachstumsraten.</desc>

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