File:Phanerozoic Climate Change.svg

English: Based on . See that file for references and notes.

This figure shows the long-term evolution of oxygen isotope ratios during the Phanerozoic eon as measured in fossils, reported by Veizer et al. (1999), and updated online in 2004.[1] Such ratios reflect both the local temperature at the site of deposition and global changes associated with the extent of permanent continental glaciation. As such, relative changes in oxygen isotope ratios can be interpreted as rough changes in climate. Quantitative conversion between these data and direct temperature changes is a complicated process subject to many systematic uncertainties, however it is estimated that each 1 part per thousand change in δ18O represents roughly a 1.5-2 °C change in tropical sea surface temperatures (Veizer et al. 2000).

Also shown on this figure are blue bars showing periods when geological criteria (Frakes et al. 1992) indicate cold temperatures and glaciation as reported by Veizer et al. (2000). The Jurassic-Cretaceous period, plotted as a lighter blue bar, was intrepreted as a "cool" period on geological grounds, but the configuration of continents at that time appears to have prevented the formation of large scale ice sheets.

All data presented here have been adjusted to 2004 ICS geologic timescale.[2] The "short-term average" was constructed by applying a σ = 3 Myr Gaussian weighted moving average to the original 16,692 reported measurements. The gray bar is the associated 95% statistical uncertainty in the moving average. The "long-term average" is a σ = 15 Myr Gaussian average of the short-term record (see notes).

On geologic time scales, the largest shift in oxygen isotope ratios is due to the slow radiogenic evolution of the mantle. A variety of proposals exist for dealing with this, and are subject to a variety of systematic biases, but the most common approach is simply to suppress long-term trends in the record. This approach was applied in this case by subtracting a quadratic polynomial fit to the short-term averages. As a result, it is not possible to draw any conclusion about very long-term (>200 Myr) changes in temperatures from this data alone. However, it is usually believed that temperatures during the present cold period and during the Cretaceous thermal maximum are not greatly different from cold and hot periods during most of the rest the Phanerozoic. However, recently this has been disputed by Royer et al. (2004), who suggest that the highs and lows in the early part of the Phanerozoic were both significantly warmer than their recent counterparts.

Common symbols for geologic periods are plotted at the bottom of the figure for reference.