File:08E 2010 5day.gif
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Description08E 2010 5day.gif |
English: This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time. NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability Table provides intensity forecast and uncertainty information. It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above. Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds. |
Date | |
Source | [1] |
Author | NOAA |
Licensing[edit]
Public domainPublic domainfalsefalse |
This image is in the public domain because it contains materials that originally came from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, taken or made as part of an employee's official duties.
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Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
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current | 05:13, 22 August 2010 | 895 × 716 (19 KB) | Anirudh Emani (talk | contribs) | Advisory 8 | |
21:29, 21 August 2010 | 895 × 716 (17 KB) | Little Mountain 5 (talk | contribs) | Advisory 7 | ||
15:14, 21 August 2010 | 895 × 716 (18 KB) | Little Mountain 5 (talk | contribs) | Advisory 6 | ||
03:43, 21 August 2010 | 895 × 716 (19 KB) | Anirudh Emani (talk | contribs) | Advisory 4 | ||
00:12, 21 August 2010 | 895 × 716 (19 KB) | Little Mountain 5 (talk | contribs) | Advisory 3 | ||
14:47, 20 August 2010 | 895 × 716 (20 KB) | Little Mountain 5 (talk | contribs) | Advisory 2 | ||
13:07, 20 August 2010 | 895 × 716 (19 KB) | Anirudh Emani (talk | contribs) | {{Information |Description={{en|1=an image for depression 08E}} |Source=NOAA |Author=NOAA |Date=August 20, 2010 |Permission= |other_versions= }} Advisory 1 |
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20 August 2010
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