English subtitles for clip: File:Stephen Hawking discusses the origin of the universe, UC Berkeley, 2007.webm

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(audience chatters)

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- [Presenter] Good evening,
ladies and gentlemen.

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Welcome to Cal Performances.

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Tonight's performance is
brought to you in part

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by our season sponsor, Wells Fargo Bank.

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Please take a moment to
turn off your cell phones,

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and as a reminder, the use of
recording devices and cameras

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of any kind is not
permitted in the theater.

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Thank you and enjoy the performance.

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- Good evening.

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(audience applauds)

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For those of you who don't know me,

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I'm Robert Birgeneau,
Chancellor of UC Berkeley,

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but for tonight's event, more importantly,

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professor of physics.

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It's my great pleasure to welcome you

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to the J. Robert Oppenheimer
Lecture in Physics.

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Berkeley has a long tradition

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of being a world-leading
center of scholarly activity

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and of bringing to campus
the very finest minds

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to address us in a public forum

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on great intellectual challenges.

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It is this Berkeley tradition

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of great learning and public service

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that the Department of Physics

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has arranged for tonight's lecture

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to be given by world-renowned
scholar Stephen Hawking.

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Professor Hawking has extracted,

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has, pardon me, attracted, not,

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he's also extracted
great physics, but he's,

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(audience laughs)

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attracted extraordinary
interest from around the world

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for his work on quantum
theories of the cosmos.

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We here at Berkeley are no exception

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to the world's fascination
with this extraordinary scholar

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as witnessed not only
by the complete sellout

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of Zellerbach Hall,

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but also by the fact that Wheeler Hall,

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where this event is simulcast,

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is also completely sold
out, just extraordinary.

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(audience applauds)

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It is with deepest pleasure that I,

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on behalf of the entire campus
and surrounding community,

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welcome Professor Stephen
Hawking to Berkeley.

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(audience applauds)

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As many of you will know,

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this year, the College
of Letters & Science

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introduced On the Same Page,

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a program asking all of our
freshmen to read a common book.

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That book was Stephen Hawking's
and Leonard Mlodinow's

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A Briefer History of Time.

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Faculty and students from
many different disciplines

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took part in discussing this book.

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In fact, even the
chancellor, namely myself,

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was invited to participate,

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and last Thursday, I held
a small discussion group

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with a number of our freshmen,

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embarrassingly one of
whom at the age of 18

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turned out to understand quantum gravity

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much better than I did.

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(audience laughs)

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I'd now like to invite
professor Mark Richards,

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the executive dean of the
College of Letters & Sciences

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and dean of physical
sciences to come forward

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and tell you more about
this wonderful project

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and how Berkeley is a
leader in educating students

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through unique opportunities

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such as the Oppenheimer Lecture, Mark.

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(audience applauds)

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- Thank you very much,
Chancellor Birgeneau.

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I can assure you that Chancellor
Birgeneau is here tonight

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mainly for the physics.

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I'm here as representative

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of the College of Letters & Science,

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and this is a very special occasion

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on which we're inaugurating a new program,

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as the chancellor said,
called On the Same Page.

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And I want to take just a few minutes

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to describe this program

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because it's very relevant
to the events tonight.

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Now the College of Letters & Science

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is actually most of the University
of California, Berkeley.

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That is, most of the faculty,
most of the students,

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most of the departments you think of

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like physics and math and
biology and economics,

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anthropology, history, music, literature.

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We teach 58 languages here

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and we have 38 departments in L&S.

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It's a very big place.

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As you might imagine,
for an entering freshman,

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can be somewhat of an
intimidating experience.

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And we've been working very hard

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in the College of Letters & Science

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to make it feel a bit smaller
and a little bit more friendly

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for the entering freshmen.

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There are a number of programs
that we're very proud of,

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for example, the Freshman Seminar series,

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where we strive to create a
seat for every entering freshman

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to have a close experience with faculty

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in classes of size 15 to 20

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on whimsical subjects sometimes.

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Also the Discovery courses

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which are our flagship breadth courses

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taught by our very finest
instructors for entering freshmen.

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And also undergraduate research programs

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to complement this more
intimate experience

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with the faculty, the great
faculty of UC Berkeley,

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and our goal is also
for all undergraduates

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to have this research experience.

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On the Same Page is a new
program in this direction.

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The idea has actually
been around for some time,

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bouncing around among the L&S deans.

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But last May, when Professor
Cohen was successful

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in inviting Stephen Hawking to
be the Oppenheimer lecturer,

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it was just too good an
opportunity to pass up.

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You're all probably familiar

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with Professor Hawking's
famous popular book

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called A Brief History of Time.

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Very widely purchased,

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perhaps not as widely read or understood

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in its initial formulation.
(audience laughs)

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There's a new version of this book,

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I happen to have a copy here,

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called A Briefer History of Time,

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in which Professor Hawking has teamed up

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with Leonard Mlodinow,
who among other things

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is writer of the Star
Trek, The Next Generation

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and Feynman's Rainbow

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and also happens to be a
Berkeley PhD in physics

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and a resident science writer at Caltech.

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Also at this time, when we were thinking

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that this might be a
good book and a good way

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to start the Freshman Seminar program,

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one of the closest friends

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of the College of Letters &
Science stepped up to the plate

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as a donor and offered to
buy a copy of this book

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for every freshman and
entering transfer student

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at UC Berkeley this year,

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and they all received this, thank you.

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(audience applauds)

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So this November, all of our freshmen

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received a copy of this
wonderful book in their mailboxes

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for light reading over their holidays.

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Now On the Same Page has meanings

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on at least three different levels,

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the obvious meanings being on
the same page with the author,

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being on the same page
with your fellow students

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and your faculty colleagues,

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but also on the same metaphorical page

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because in future years we might well have

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playwrights or composers or filmmakers

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instead of just plain old book authors

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to be the the feature of this program.

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Now I want you all to think about

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the last time you read a really great book

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and then imagine that all of your friends

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had just read the same
book and then imagine

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that you could freely
attend discussion sessions

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with world-renowned experts

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on every conceivable aspect of that book

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and then imagine that you also
would have the opportunity

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to hear the author lecture
and to meet the author.

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This is the experience
that we hope to create

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for all the L&S students,
beginning with their freshman year

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and continuing each year
until their graduation.

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And the message is very clear.

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Welcome to Berkeley, a
place of challenging ideas,

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a forum for diverse ways of interpreting

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and experiencing the world around us,

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and also an arena in which
great universal themes

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are explored and questioned.

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Certainly this year's author and subject

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make for a fitting beginning
for On the Same Page.

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It's not too hard to be interested

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in things like the origin of the universe

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and the fundamental nature of time.

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So I want to thank Professor Hawking

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for helping us make
this a very special year

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in the College of
Letters & Science at Cal.

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I'm also very happy to announce

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that the L&S deans have already
selected next year's book.

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Are you waiting?

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(audience laughs)

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It's Lincoln at Gettysburg
by author Garry Wills,

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his brilliant political, historical,

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and literary analysis of
Lincoln's famous speech

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that recast the struggle for
freedom and human dignity

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at a critical moment in
our nation's history.

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All of our freshmen, all of our faculty,

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and hopefully our students
and our colleagues

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and our friends in the community
will be on the same page

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with Lincoln and Garry
Wills next September.

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And this will be also co-sponsored

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as an event with Cal Performances
and Zellerbach Auditorium.

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So I want to close by thanking you all,

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everyone here in Zellerbach,

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everyone out there in Wheeler Auditorium

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that is also sold out with
closed-circuit broadcast,

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and everyone out there on the webcast,

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for helping us inaugurate On
the Same Page this evening.

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I want to thank Robert Cole,

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the director of Cal Performances,

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for being our partner this
year and in future years,

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Marjorie Shapiro, the chair
of the physics department

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and her colleagues, for
sharing Stephen Hawking

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and the Oppenheimer lecturer
with us this evening,

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and also special thanks

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to staff members Alex
Schwartz and Mary Olmstead

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who helped to make this
event possible this evening.

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So without further ado, let
me introduce Marvin Cohen.

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Marvin Cohen is a highly distinguished

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theoretical physicist himself,

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holder of the very prestigious position

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of University Professor in
our physics department here,

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and he will introduce
Professor Hawking, thank you.

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(audience applauds)

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- Thank you, Mark.

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It has been a great pleasure

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for me to serve on the
Oppenheimer Lecture Committee.

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Since its inception in 1988, 1998,

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we've been privileged to
have outstanding theorists

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speaking in the series.

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It started with our first
speaker who was Murray Gell-Mann.

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Then we had Kip Thorne,
Freeman Dyson, Frank Yang,

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Michael Fisher, our own Bruno
Zumino, Robert Laughlin,

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and tonight our 10th
lecturer is Stephen Hawking.

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In the early lectures, before
introducing the speaker,

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I would say something about Oppenheimer

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and the history of his
involvement with our department.

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However in recent years,

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I've just described the current events

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related to Oppenheimer.

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For those of you who are interested

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in learning more about Oppenheimer

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and the connection to Berkeley,

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there is considerable
information on the web

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and there are a number
of books on Oppenheimer.

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In 2005, we celebrated
the World Year of Physics.

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The idea was to get
everybody into physics.

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And it was the 100th anniversary

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of the Einstein marvelous year of 1905,

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and in that year Einstein
did extraordinary work

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on the sizes of molecules,
that was his thesis,

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on Brownian motion, on relativity,

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and that's when he wrote down

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that little e equals mc squared thing.

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(audience laughs)

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You see it all over Telegraph on t-shirts.

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(audience laughs)

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And he also did his research
on the photoelectric effect,

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for which he later won the Nobel Prize.

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The physics community around the world

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participated in many projects

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particularly to try to
interest high school students

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and to reach the public, so
it was a year of outreach.

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And many projects were repeated
again last year in 2006,

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and they've continued to 2007.

258
00:13:26,310 --> 00:13:29,680
And there's been a
considerable effort worldwide

259
00:13:29,680 --> 00:13:32,630
to try to maintain this
level of excitement

260
00:13:32,630 --> 00:13:35,720
to see whether or not we
can get people to realize

261
00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,530
that physicists are people too

262
00:13:38,530 --> 00:13:41,100
and that it's a wonderful
field to work in,

263
00:13:41,100 --> 00:13:43,390
and I view the Oppenheimer Lecture series

264
00:13:43,390 --> 00:13:44,600
as part of this effort.

265
00:13:45,970 --> 00:13:47,970
Now activities related to Oppenheimer

266
00:13:47,970 --> 00:13:51,660
intensified during this period
and in the past few years,

267
00:13:51,660 --> 00:13:54,590
and several new books
appeared about his life

268
00:13:54,590 --> 00:13:56,200
and about the Manhattan Project.

269
00:13:57,260 --> 00:14:00,010
A recording of a speech by Oppenheimer

270
00:14:00,010 --> 00:14:03,320
just months after the
first atomic bomb test

271
00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,370
was found by the American
Philosophical Society

272
00:14:06,370 --> 00:14:07,600
in their archives,

273
00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,030
and we had the opportunity
here in Berkeley

274
00:14:10,030 --> 00:14:12,440
to hear this speech.

275
00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,940
The San Francisco Opera
presented the first performance

276
00:14:15,940 --> 00:14:17,880
of the opera Doctor Atomic

277
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:22,690
about Oppenheimer and the
first atomic bomb tests.

278
00:14:22,690 --> 00:14:25,860
There were discussions
about Oppenheimer on campus,

279
00:14:25,860 --> 00:14:29,770
about ethics and science
and about physics.

280
00:14:29,770 --> 00:14:34,290
I participated in some of
these, and I was very impressed

281
00:14:34,290 --> 00:14:36,890
by the large interest of our community.

282
00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:39,590
Now one area of physics

283
00:14:41,289 --> 00:14:44,069
in which Oppenheimer made
seminal contributions

284
00:14:44,070 --> 00:14:47,980
is associated with objects
that later became called,

285
00:14:47,980 --> 00:14:50,380
later were called black holes.

286
00:14:50,380 --> 00:14:52,470
Stephen Hawking is also known

287
00:14:52,470 --> 00:14:55,370
for his seminal work in this area,

288
00:14:55,370 --> 00:14:57,990
and like Oppenheimer, he is widely known

289
00:14:57,990 --> 00:15:00,370
by the public at large.

290
00:15:00,370 --> 00:15:03,730
And the mention of his
name is also a catalyst

291
00:15:03,730 --> 00:15:08,170
for initiating intellectual
and stimulating discussions.

292
00:15:09,430 --> 00:15:13,590
As I indicated, we have tried
to make the series of lectures

293
00:15:15,090 --> 00:15:17,210
exciting and accessible

294
00:15:17,210 --> 00:15:20,690
despite the technical
nature of the lectures.

295
00:15:20,690 --> 00:15:23,850
There were talks on
quarks and quasiparticles,

296
00:15:23,850 --> 00:15:28,260
symmetries and supersymmetries,
galaxies and strings,

297
00:15:28,260 --> 00:15:31,180
and these were given by gifted lecturers,

298
00:15:31,180 --> 00:15:35,350
using pictures and equations
and logical arguments

299
00:15:35,350 --> 00:15:39,170
in an attempt to convince
us all, you and us,

300
00:15:39,170 --> 00:15:42,270
that we can understand much
of what nature is about

301
00:15:42,270 --> 00:15:44,020
using these tools.

302
00:15:44,940 --> 00:15:47,810
Tonight, we are very fortunate
to have the opportunity

303
00:15:47,810 --> 00:15:50,850
to continue our physics outreach program

304
00:15:50,850 --> 00:15:52,240
with an Oppenheimer lecture

305
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,650
presented by Professor Stephen Hawking,

306
00:15:55,650 --> 00:15:58,030
who is at Cambridge University

307
00:15:58,030 --> 00:16:00,670
where he joined the department
of applied mathematics

308
00:16:00,670 --> 00:16:04,130
and theoretical physics in 1973.

309
00:16:04,130 --> 00:16:06,890
Since 1979, he has held the post

310
00:16:06,890 --> 00:16:09,450
of Lucasian Professor of Mathematics.

311
00:16:09,450 --> 00:16:12,320
This chair was once held by Isaac Newton.

312
00:16:13,700 --> 00:16:16,260
Professor Hawking has
visited Berkeley before

313
00:16:16,260 --> 00:16:18,780
and he's lectured here in the past.

314
00:16:18,780 --> 00:16:21,160
I first met him in 1988

315
00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:24,860
when he spent time here
as a Hitchcock lecturer.

316
00:16:24,860 --> 00:16:27,960
He gave talks and
interacted with many of us,

317
00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:31,020
both scientifically and socially.

318
00:16:31,020 --> 00:16:32,460
His technical lectures

319
00:16:32,460 --> 00:16:35,340
for members of our faculty and students

320
00:16:35,340 --> 00:16:39,370
on cosmology and astrophysics
were usually focused

321
00:16:39,370 --> 00:16:41,760
on subjects he was currently working on

322
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,860
such as black holes.

323
00:16:43,860 --> 00:16:45,400
In addition, we were fortunate

324
00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:48,060
to have him give general public lectures

325
00:16:48,060 --> 00:16:51,140
on slightly broader subjects
like tonight's lecture,

326
00:16:51,140 --> 00:16:52,940
which is on a fairly broad subject,

327
00:16:52,940 --> 00:16:54,320
the origin of the universe.

328
00:16:54,322 --> 00:16:57,842
(audience laughs)

329
00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:59,290
It's not easy for me

330
00:16:59,290 --> 00:17:01,230
as Chair of the Oppenheimer Lecture series

331
00:17:01,230 --> 00:17:03,490
to come up with a stimulating speaker

332
00:17:03,490 --> 00:17:07,410
who can excite both an
academic and public audience.

333
00:17:07,410 --> 00:17:09,360
For this reason, I was particularly happy

334
00:17:09,360 --> 00:17:11,660
when Stephen agreed to come.

335
00:17:11,660 --> 00:17:13,270
This was about four years ago

336
00:17:13,270 --> 00:17:16,400
when we met at London's Heathrow Airport.

337
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:20,950
I was coming from Edinburgh
and he was going to China.

338
00:17:20,950 --> 00:17:22,840
I was complaining about being tired

339
00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,200
from my short flight from Edinburgh,

340
00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,540
while he was calmly eating lunch

341
00:17:27,540 --> 00:17:30,350
with the look of someone
enjoying the anticipation

342
00:17:30,350 --> 00:17:33,120
of another adventure, and I felt guilty.

343
00:17:34,380 --> 00:17:36,410
I was reminded of this again recently

344
00:17:36,410 --> 00:17:39,940
when I read an article about
Stephen's current plans.

345
00:17:39,940 --> 00:17:44,710
When I turned 65, I thought
that maybe I should retire

346
00:17:44,710 --> 00:17:49,310
and play checkers in the
sun and things of this kind.

347
00:17:49,310 --> 00:17:53,280
In contrast, Stephen turned 65 this year,

348
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,670
and he has decided to
take a zero gravity ride

349
00:17:56,670 --> 00:17:58,230
out of Cape Canaveral

350
00:17:58,228 --> 00:18:00,348
(audience laughs)

351
00:18:00,350 --> 00:18:02,490
in a so-called vomit comet.

352
00:18:02,493 --> 00:18:05,323
(audience laughs)

353
00:18:06,250 --> 00:18:08,460
During his flight, he will experience

354
00:18:08,460 --> 00:18:10,600
the feeling of being weightless

355
00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,080
and also the feeling of
being very very heavy.

356
00:18:14,050 --> 00:18:17,610
I understand this event
is planned for next month.

357
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,690
And if that isn't enough, in 2009,

358
00:18:22,690 --> 00:18:26,210
Stephen plans a longer and higher flight

359
00:18:26,210 --> 00:18:28,800
in a space plane being developed now

360
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,790
to reach an altitude of 75 miles.

361
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,820
When he's not on a space mission,

362
00:18:35,820 --> 00:18:38,120
Stephen Hawking does research,

363
00:18:38,120 --> 00:18:40,670
he lectures to broad audiences,

364
00:18:40,670 --> 00:18:44,280
and he writes very popular books.

365
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,440
He's an inspiration to those

366
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:51,440
who feel they are challenged
and limited in some way,

367
00:18:51,850 --> 00:18:53,920
and that includes all of us.

368
00:18:54,990 --> 00:18:57,920
Right now, I feel more
challenged than anyone here

369
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:01,560
because I have to think of next
year's Oppenheimer Lecture.

370
00:19:01,563 --> 00:19:02,393
(audience laughs)

371
00:19:02,396 --> 00:19:06,026
And this is going to be a
very hard act to follow.

372
00:19:06,030 --> 00:19:09,950
So please join me in
welcoming Stephen Hawking.

373
00:19:09,946 --> 00:19:12,946
(audience applauds)

374
00:20:04,128 --> 00:20:04,958
(machine beeps)

375
00:20:04,961 --> 00:20:06,881
- [Aide] Any questions?

376
00:20:57,333 --> 00:20:59,543
- [Stephen] Can you hear me?

377
00:20:59,544 --> 00:21:00,964
- [Audience] Yes.

378
00:21:03,959 --> 00:21:06,789
(audience laughs)

379
00:21:10,090 --> 00:21:12,240
- [Stephen] According
to the Boshongo people

380
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:13,760
of Central Africa,

381
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,670
in the beginning, there was only darkness,

382
00:21:16,670 --> 00:21:18,290
water, and the great god Bumba.

383
00:21:23,197 --> 00:21:26,667
One day, Bumba, in pain
from a stomach ache,

384
00:21:26,670 --> 00:21:28,020
vomited up the sun.

385
00:21:29,264 --> 00:21:32,804
The sun dried up some of
the water, leaving land.

386
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,960
Still in pain, Bumba vomited up the moon,

387
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,730
the stars, and then some animals,

388
00:21:44,730 --> 00:21:47,590
the leopard, the crocodile, the turtle,

389
00:21:47,590 --> 00:21:50,180
and finally man.

390
00:21:58,290 --> 00:22:01,350
This creation myth, like many others,

391
00:22:01,350 --> 00:22:05,360
tries to answer the questions we all ask.

392
00:22:05,360 --> 00:22:07,600
Why are we here?

393
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,390
Where did we come from?

394
00:22:12,790 --> 00:22:14,370
The answer generally given

395
00:22:14,370 --> 00:22:18,890
was that humans were of
comparatively recent origin

396
00:22:18,890 --> 00:22:23,020
because it must have been
obvious even at early times

397
00:22:23,020 --> 00:22:25,330
that the human race was improving

398
00:22:25,330 --> 00:22:27,160
in knowledge and technology.

399
00:22:28,190 --> 00:22:31,000
So it can't have been around that long

400
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,300
or it would have progressed even more.

401
00:22:40,740 --> 00:22:44,240
For example, according to Bishop Usher,

402
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,140
the book of Genesis placed
the creation of the world

403
00:22:47,140 --> 00:22:48,870
at nine in the morning

404
00:22:48,870 --> 00:22:53,550
on October the 27th, 4004 BC.

405
00:22:53,553 --> 00:22:56,383
(audience laughs)

406
00:23:04,190 --> 00:23:07,840
On the other hand, the
physical surroundings,

407
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,730
like mountains and rivers,

408
00:23:09,730 --> 00:23:12,650
change very little in a human lifetime.

409
00:23:13,700 --> 00:23:17,170
They were therefore thought
to be a constant background

410
00:23:17,170 --> 00:23:21,150
and either to have existed
forever as an empty landscape

411
00:23:21,150 --> 00:23:24,820
or to have been created at
the same time as the humans.

412
00:23:38,340 --> 00:23:41,680
Not everyone, however,
was happy with the idea

413
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,910
that the universe had a beginning.

414
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,290
For example, Aristotle,

415
00:23:47,290 --> 00:23:50,320
the most famous of the Greek philosophers,

416
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:54,180
believed the universe had existed forever.

417
00:23:54,180 --> 00:23:58,520
Something eternal is more
perfect than something created.

418
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,960
He suggested the reason we see progress

419
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,710
was that floods or other natural disasters

420
00:24:08,710 --> 00:24:12,820
had repeatedly set civilization
back to the beginning.

421
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,840
The motivation for believing
in an eternal universe

422
00:24:23,837 --> 00:24:27,597
was the desire to avoid
invoking divine intervention

423
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,680
to create the universe and set it going.

424
00:24:36,030 --> 00:24:40,230
Conversely, those who believed
the universe had a beginning

425
00:24:40,230 --> 00:24:43,680
used it as an argument
for the existence of God

426
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,810
as the first cause or prime
mover of the universe.

427
00:24:53,020 --> 00:24:56,460
If one believed that the
universe had a beginning,

428
00:24:56,460 --> 00:25:01,460
the obvious question was what
happened before the beginning?

429
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,780
What was God doing
before he made the world?

430
00:25:05,810 --> 00:25:09,790
Was he preparing hell for
people who asked such questions?

431
00:25:09,793 --> 00:25:12,623
(audience laughs)

432
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:28,330
The problem of whether or not
the universe had a beginning

433
00:25:28,330 --> 00:25:29,700
was a great concern

434
00:25:29,700 --> 00:25:33,120
to the German philosopher Immanuel Kant.

435
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:40,330
He felt there were logical contradictions

436
00:25:40,330 --> 00:25:43,130
or antimonies either way.

437
00:25:49,756 --> 00:25:51,866
If the universe had a beginning,

438
00:25:51,870 --> 00:25:55,250
why did it wait an infinite
time before it began?

439
00:25:56,250 --> 00:25:58,340
He called that the thesis.

440
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,980
On the other hand, if the
universe had existed forever,

441
00:26:05,977 --> 00:26:10,327
why did it take an infinite
time to reach the present stage?

442
00:26:11,340 --> 00:26:13,800
He called that the antithesis.

443
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,640
Both the thesis and the antithesis

444
00:26:21,510 --> 00:26:23,830
depended on Kant's assumption,

445
00:26:23,830 --> 00:26:28,470
along with almost everyone
else, that time was absolute.

446
00:26:29,530 --> 00:26:33,400
That is to say, it went
from the infinite past

447
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:37,350
to the infinite future
independently of any universe

448
00:26:37,350 --> 00:26:40,390
that might or might not
exist in this background.

449
00:26:46,770 --> 00:26:48,320
This is still the picture

450
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,600
in the mind of many scientists today.

451
00:26:51,603 --> 00:26:55,543
However in 1915, Einstein introduced

452
00:26:55,540 --> 00:26:59,090
his revolutionary general
theory of relativity.

453
00:27:03,659 --> 00:27:07,519
In this, space and time
were no longer absolute,

454
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,480
no longer a fixed background to events.

455
00:27:11,490 --> 00:27:15,290
Instead, they were dynamical
quantities that were shaped

456
00:27:15,290 --> 00:27:18,000
by the matter and energy in the universe.

457
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,690
They were defined only
within the universe,

458
00:27:24,690 --> 00:27:26,520
so it made no sense

459
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,730
to talk of a time before
the universe began.

460
00:27:30,750 --> 00:27:35,040
It would be like asking for a
point south of the South Pole.

461
00:27:35,933 --> 00:27:37,313
It is not defined.

462
00:27:43,970 --> 00:27:47,720
If the universe was
essentially unchanging in time,

463
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,770
as was generally assumed before the 1920s,

464
00:27:51,770 --> 00:27:53,680
there would be no reason

465
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:57,870
that time should not be
defined arbitrarily far back.

466
00:28:02,060 --> 00:28:06,520
Any so-called beginning of the
universe would be artificial

467
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,130
in the sense that one
could extend the history

468
00:28:09,130 --> 00:28:11,040
back to earlier times.

469
00:28:21,180 --> 00:28:25,080
Thus, it might be that the
universe was created last year,

470
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,280
but with all the memories
and physical evidence

471
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,490
to look like it was much older.

472
00:28:35,610 --> 00:28:38,400
This raises deep philosophical questions

473
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,560
about the meaning of existence.

474
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:42,760
I shall deal with these

475
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,270
by adopting what is called
the positivist approach.

476
00:28:51,013 --> 00:28:54,493
In this, the idea is that
we interpret the input

477
00:28:54,490 --> 00:28:58,970
from our senses in terms of
the model we make of the world.

478
00:29:00,220 --> 00:29:03,790
One cannot ask whether the
model represents reality,

479
00:29:03,790 --> 00:29:05,620
only whether it works.

480
00:29:11,690 --> 00:29:13,580
A model is a good model

481
00:29:13,580 --> 00:29:17,370
if first it interprets a
wide range of observations

482
00:29:17,370 --> 00:29:19,720
in terms of a simple and elegant model,

483
00:29:21,070 --> 00:29:24,650
and second, if the model
makes definite predictions

484
00:29:24,650 --> 00:29:29,650
that can be tested and possibly
falsified by observation.

485
00:29:38,300 --> 00:29:40,930
In terms of the positivist approach,

486
00:29:40,930 --> 00:29:45,010
one can compare two
models of the universe,

487
00:29:45,007 --> 00:29:48,347
one in which the universe
was created last year

488
00:29:48,350 --> 00:29:51,190
and one in which the
universe existed much longer.

489
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,660
The model in which the universe existed

490
00:30:04,660 --> 00:30:06,450
for longer than a year

491
00:30:06,450 --> 00:30:09,540
can explain things like identical twins

492
00:30:09,540 --> 00:30:12,990
that have a common cause
more than a year ago.

493
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:19,810
On the other hand,

494
00:30:19,810 --> 00:30:23,340
the model in which the
universe was created last year

495
00:30:23,340 --> 00:30:25,620
cannot explain such events.

496
00:30:26,630 --> 00:30:29,720
So the first model is better.

497
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,990
One cannot ask whether the
universe really existed

498
00:30:32,990 --> 00:30:36,180
before a year ago or just appeared to.

499
00:30:37,334 --> 00:30:40,104
In the positivist approach,
they are the same.

500
00:30:56,348 --> 00:30:58,238
In an unchanging universe,

501
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:00,910
there would be no natural starting point.

502
00:31:02,410 --> 00:31:05,400
The situation changed radically however

503
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,970
when Edwin Hubble began
to make observations

504
00:31:07,970 --> 00:31:12,970
with the 100-inch telescope
on Mount Wilson in the 1920s.

505
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:20,730
Hubble found that stars

506
00:31:20,730 --> 00:31:24,050
are not uniformly
distributed throughout space,

507
00:31:24,050 --> 00:31:25,400
but are gathered together

508
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,390
in vast collections called galaxies.

509
00:31:33,940 --> 00:31:37,200
By measuring the light from galaxies,

510
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,630
Hubble could determine their velocities.

511
00:31:40,670 --> 00:31:43,140
He was expecting that as many galaxies

512
00:31:43,140 --> 00:31:47,320
would be moving towards
us as were moving away.

513
00:31:48,170 --> 00:31:50,850
This is what one would have in a universe

514
00:31:50,850 --> 00:31:53,130
that was unchanging with time.

515
00:31:58,370 --> 00:32:01,000
But to his surprise, Hubble found

516
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,710
that nearly all the galaxies
were moving away from us.

517
00:32:05,730 --> 00:32:09,200
Moreover, the further
galaxies were from us,

518
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,630
the faster they were moving away.

519
00:32:17,260 --> 00:32:20,350
The universe was not unchanging with time

520
00:32:20,350 --> 00:32:22,860
as everyone had thought previously.

521
00:32:23,890 --> 00:32:25,000
It was expanding.

522
00:32:26,460 --> 00:32:29,310
The distance between distant galaxies

523
00:32:29,310 --> 00:32:31,050
was increasing with time.

524
00:32:40,290 --> 00:32:42,320
The expansion of the universe

525
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:46,330
was one of the most important
intellectual discoveries

526
00:32:46,330 --> 00:32:49,760
of the 20th century or of any century.

527
00:32:54,130 --> 00:32:55,680
It transformed the debate

528
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,470
about whether the
universe had a beginning.

529
00:32:59,510 --> 00:33:02,260
If galaxies are moving apart now,

530
00:33:02,260 --> 00:33:05,480
they must have been closer
together in the past.

531
00:33:06,540 --> 00:33:08,880
If their speed had been constant,

532
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,930
they would all have been
on top of one another

533
00:33:11,930 --> 00:33:15,610
about 15 billion years ago.

534
00:33:15,610 --> 00:33:18,750
Was this the beginning of the universe?

535
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,870
Many scientists were still unhappy

536
00:33:27,870 --> 00:33:30,660
with the universe having a beginning

537
00:33:30,661 --> 00:33:34,341
because it seemed to imply
that physics broke down.

538
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,360
One would have to invoke
an outside agency,

539
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,840
which for convenience one can call God,

540
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,950
to determine how the universe began.

541
00:33:57,970 --> 00:33:59,860
They therefore advanced theories

542
00:33:59,860 --> 00:34:04,150
in which the universe was
expanding at the present time

543
00:34:04,150 --> 00:34:06,170
but didn't have a beginning.

544
00:34:11,525 --> 00:34:13,855
One was the steady state theory

545
00:34:13,850 --> 00:34:18,600
proposed by Bondi,
Gold, and Hoyle in 1948.

546
00:34:24,455 --> 00:34:28,525
In the steady state theory,
as galaxies moved apart,

547
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,890
the idea was that new galaxies
would form from matter

548
00:34:31,890 --> 00:34:35,160
that was supposed to be
continually being created

549
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:36,460
throughout space.

550
00:34:44,030 --> 00:34:46,820
The universe would have existed forever

551
00:34:46,820 --> 00:34:49,600
and would have looked
the same at all times.

552
00:34:55,700 --> 00:34:58,700
This last property had the great virtue,

553
00:34:58,700 --> 00:35:01,320
from a positivist point of view,

554
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,570
of being a definite prediction

555
00:35:03,570 --> 00:35:06,170
that could be tested by observation.

556
00:35:16,030 --> 00:35:20,430
The Cambridge Radio Astronomy
Group, under Martin Ryle,

557
00:35:20,430 --> 00:35:25,110
did a survey of weak radio
sources in the early 1960s.

558
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:36,740
These were distributed fairly
uniformly across the sky,

559
00:35:36,740 --> 00:35:41,500
indicating that most of the
sources lay outside our galaxy.

560
00:35:42,540 --> 00:35:46,420
The weaker sources would
be further away on average.

561
00:35:55,210 --> 00:35:57,740
The steady state theory
predicted the shape

562
00:35:57,740 --> 00:36:00,410
of the graph of the number of sources

563
00:36:00,410 --> 00:36:02,150
against source strength.

564
00:36:07,510 --> 00:36:09,280
But the observations showed

565
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,820
more faint sources than predicted,

566
00:36:11,820 --> 00:36:15,840
indicating that the density
sources was higher in the past.

567
00:36:16,890 --> 00:36:19,690
This was contrary to the basic assumption

568
00:36:19,690 --> 00:36:21,600
of the steady state theory,

569
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,140
that everything was constant in time.

570
00:36:31,250 --> 00:36:33,860
For this and other reasons,

571
00:36:33,860 --> 00:36:36,520
the steady state theory was abandoned.

572
00:36:44,550 --> 00:36:48,560
Another attempt to avoid the
universe having a beginning

573
00:36:48,561 --> 00:36:49,671
was the suggestion

574
00:36:49,670 --> 00:36:52,890
that there was a previous
contracting phase,

575
00:36:52,890 --> 00:36:56,660
but because of rotation
and local irregularities,

576
00:36:56,660 --> 00:36:59,540
the matter would not all
fall to the same point.

577
00:37:09,270 --> 00:37:11,880
Instead, different parts of the matter

578
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,490
would miss each other,

579
00:37:13,492 --> 00:37:15,742
and the universe would expand again

580
00:37:15,740 --> 00:37:18,240
with the density remaining finite.

581
00:37:24,270 --> 00:37:27,530
Two Russians, Lifshitz and Khalatnikov,

582
00:37:27,530 --> 00:37:29,510
actually claimed to have proved

583
00:37:29,510 --> 00:37:33,030
that a general contraction
without exact symmetry

584
00:37:33,030 --> 00:37:35,160
would always lead to a bounce

585
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,670
with the density remaining finite.

586
00:37:45,100 --> 00:37:47,180
This result was very convenient

587
00:37:47,180 --> 00:37:50,990
for Marxist Leninist
dialectical materialism

588
00:37:50,990 --> 00:37:53,200
because it avoided awkward questions

589
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,740
about the creation of the universe.

590
00:37:56,710 --> 00:37:58,870
It therefore became an article of faith

591
00:37:58,870 --> 00:38:00,960
for Soviet scientists.

592
00:38:05,890 --> 00:38:09,300
When Lifshitz and Khalatnikov
published their claim,

593
00:38:09,300 --> 00:38:12,760
I was a 21-year-old research student

594
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:17,030
looking for something to
complete my PhD thesis.

595
00:38:25,900 --> 00:38:28,780
I didn't believe their so-called proof

596
00:38:28,780 --> 00:38:30,700
and set out with Roger Penrose

597
00:38:30,700 --> 00:38:33,120
to develop new mathematical techniques

598
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:34,660
to study the question.

599
00:38:39,370 --> 00:38:42,250
We showed that the
universe couldn't bounce.

600
00:38:43,270 --> 00:38:47,270
If Einstein's general theory
of relativity is correct,

601
00:38:47,270 --> 00:38:48,670
there will be a singularity,

602
00:38:49,580 --> 00:38:53,250
a point of infinite density
and spacetime curvature

603
00:38:53,250 --> 00:38:55,300
where time has a beginning.

604
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,800
Observational evidence to confirm the idea

605
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,900
that the universe had
a very dense beginning

606
00:39:06,900 --> 00:39:10,110
came in October 1965,

607
00:39:10,110 --> 00:39:14,140
a few months after my
first singularity result

608
00:39:14,140 --> 00:39:16,580
with the discovery of a faint background

609
00:39:16,580 --> 00:39:18,920
of microwaves throughout space.

610
00:39:26,660 --> 00:39:28,550
These microwaves are the same

611
00:39:28,550 --> 00:39:31,120
as those in your microwave oven,

612
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:32,860
but very much less powerful.

613
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,170
They would heat your pizza only

614
00:39:36,170 --> 00:39:40,440
to minus 271.3 degrees centigrade,

615
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:43,350
not much good for defrosting the pizza,

616
00:39:43,350 --> 00:39:45,420
let alone cooking it.

617
00:39:45,415 --> 00:39:48,245
(audience laughs)

618
00:39:52,810 --> 00:39:56,510
You can actually observe
these microwaves yourself.

619
00:39:57,510 --> 00:40:00,420
Set your television to an empty channel.

620
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,660
A few percent of the snow
you see on the screen

621
00:40:04,660 --> 00:40:08,120
will be caused by this
background of microwaves.

622
00:40:18,970 --> 00:40:22,600
The only reasonable
interpretation of the background

623
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,830
is that it is radiation left over

624
00:40:24,830 --> 00:40:27,520
from an early very hot and dense state.

625
00:40:28,610 --> 00:40:32,560
As the universe expanded, the
radiation would have cooled

626
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:36,290
until it is just the faint
remnant we observe today.

627
00:40:43,010 --> 00:40:47,290
Although the singularity
theorems of Penrose and myself

628
00:40:47,290 --> 00:40:50,170
predicted that the
universe had a beginning,

629
00:40:50,170 --> 00:40:52,180
they didn't say how it had begun.

630
00:40:56,450 --> 00:40:58,940
The equations of general relativity

631
00:40:58,940 --> 00:41:01,460
would break down at the singularity.

632
00:41:02,500 --> 00:41:05,160
Thus, Einstein's theory cannot predict

633
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:07,200
how the universe will begin,

634
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:09,860
but only how it will
evolve once it has begun.

635
00:41:17,500 --> 00:41:20,120
There are two attitudes one can take

636
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,970
to the results of Penrose and myself.

637
00:41:23,980 --> 00:41:27,490
One is to that God chose
how the universe began

638
00:41:27,490 --> 00:41:30,100
for reasons we could not understand.

639
00:41:35,890 --> 00:41:38,910
This was the view of Pope John Paul.

640
00:41:41,580 --> 00:41:44,920
At a conference on
cosmology in the Vatican,

641
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,950
the pope told the
delegates that it was okay

642
00:41:47,950 --> 00:41:51,350
to study the universe after it began,

643
00:41:51,354 --> 00:41:54,184
(audience laughs)

644
00:41:55,330 --> 00:41:58,910
but they should not inquire
into the beginning itself

645
00:41:58,910 --> 00:42:01,440
because that was the moment of creation

646
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:02,810
and the work of God.

647
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:08,890
I was glad he didn't realize

648
00:42:08,890 --> 00:42:12,050
I had presented a paper at the conference

649
00:42:12,050 --> 00:42:14,700
suggesting how the universe began.

650
00:42:15,750 --> 00:42:18,840
I didn't fancy the thought
of being handed over

651
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:22,050
to the Inquisition like Galileo.

652
00:42:22,047 --> 00:42:25,047
(audience applauds)

653
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,730
The other interpretation of our results,

654
00:42:49,730 --> 00:42:52,500
which is favored by most scientists,

655
00:42:52,500 --> 00:42:56,350
is that it indicates that the
general theory of relativity

656
00:42:56,350 --> 00:42:59,800
breaks down in the very
strong gravitational fields

657
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:01,440
in the early universe.

658
00:43:05,380 --> 00:43:08,620
It has to be replaced by
a more complete theory.

659
00:43:17,550 --> 00:43:19,530
One would expect this anyway

660
00:43:19,530 --> 00:43:22,790
because general relativity
does not take account

661
00:43:22,790 --> 00:43:25,380
of the small-scale structure of matter,

662
00:43:25,380 --> 00:43:27,780
which is governed by quantum theory.

663
00:43:39,750 --> 00:43:41,920
This does not matter normally

664
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:44,900
because the scale of
the universe is enormous

665
00:43:44,900 --> 00:43:48,740
compared to the microscopic
scales of quantum theory.

666
00:43:49,830 --> 00:43:52,820
But when the universe is the Planck size,

667
00:43:52,820 --> 00:43:55,980
a billion trillion
trillionth of a centimeter,

668
00:43:55,980 --> 00:43:57,880
the two scales are the same

669
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:01,260
and quantum theory has
to be taken into account.

670
00:44:15,810 --> 00:44:19,320
In order to understand the
origin of the universe,

671
00:44:19,319 --> 00:44:22,869
we need to combine the
general theory of relativity

672
00:44:22,870 --> 00:44:24,340
with quantum theory.

673
00:44:27,950 --> 00:44:30,840
The best way of doing so seems to be

674
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:34,420
to use Feynman's idea
of a sum over histories.

675
00:44:43,340 --> 00:44:46,550
Richard Feynman was a colorful character

676
00:44:46,550 --> 00:44:50,640
who played the bongo drums
in a strip joint in Pasadena

677
00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:52,460
and was a brilliant physicist

678
00:44:52,460 --> 00:44:55,450
at the California Institute of Technology.

679
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:05,220
He proposed that a system got
from a state A to a state B

680
00:45:05,220 --> 00:45:07,830
by every possible path or history.

681
00:45:13,470 --> 00:45:18,060
Each path or history has a
certain amplitude or intensity,

682
00:45:18,060 --> 00:45:21,800
and the probability of the
system going from A to B

683
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:25,340
is given by adding up the
amplitudes for each path.

684
00:45:31,580 --> 00:45:33,030
There will be a history

685
00:45:33,030 --> 00:45:36,000
in which the moon is made of blue cheese,

686
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:40,020
but the amplitude is low,
which is bad news for mice.

687
00:45:40,020 --> 00:45:42,850
(audience laughs)

688
00:45:54,050 --> 00:45:56,930
The probability for a
state of the universe

689
00:45:56,930 --> 00:46:00,850
at the present time is given
by adding up the amplitudes

690
00:46:00,850 --> 00:46:03,720
for all the histories
that end with that state.

691
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,150
But how did the histories start?

692
00:46:14,310 --> 00:46:17,020
This is the origin
question in another guise.

693
00:46:21,060 --> 00:46:25,000
Does it require a creator to
decree how the universe began,

694
00:46:26,010 --> 00:46:28,590
or is the initial state of the universe

695
00:46:28,590 --> 00:46:31,020
determined by a law of science?

696
00:46:44,930 --> 00:46:47,500
In fact, this question would arise

697
00:46:47,504 --> 00:46:50,024
even if the histories of the universe

698
00:46:50,020 --> 00:46:52,120
went back to the infinite past,

699
00:46:53,240 --> 00:46:54,410
but it is more immediate

700
00:46:54,410 --> 00:46:58,500
if the universe began
only 15 billion years ago.

701
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:10,590
The problem of what happens
at the beginning of time

702
00:47:10,590 --> 00:47:13,120
is a bit like the
question of what happened

703
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:14,870
at the edge of the world

704
00:47:14,870 --> 00:47:17,740
when people thought the world was flat.

705
00:47:25,300 --> 00:47:27,420
Is the world a flat plate

706
00:47:27,420 --> 00:47:29,970
with the sea pouring over the edge?

707
00:47:31,010 --> 00:47:32,870
I have tested this experimentally.

708
00:47:34,630 --> 00:47:38,220
I have been round the world
and I have not fallen off.

709
00:47:50,150 --> 00:47:51,600
As we all know,

710
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:55,110
the problem of what happens
at the edge of the world

711
00:47:55,110 --> 00:47:57,190
was solved when people realized

712
00:47:57,190 --> 00:48:01,650
that the world was not a flat
plate, but a curved surface.

713
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:08,330
Time, however, seemed to be different.

714
00:48:09,460 --> 00:48:12,280
It appeared to be separate from space

715
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,780
and to be like a model railway track.

716
00:48:15,820 --> 00:48:19,180
If it had a beginning, there
would have to be someone

717
00:48:19,180 --> 00:48:20,990
to set the trains going.

718
00:48:28,940 --> 00:48:31,970
Einstein's general theory of relativity

719
00:48:31,970 --> 00:48:34,920
unified time and space as spacetime,

720
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:37,820
but time was still different from space

721
00:48:37,820 --> 00:48:39,640
and was like a corridor,

722
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:43,730
which either had a beginning
and end or went on forever.

723
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:52,810
However, when one combines
general relativity

724
00:48:52,810 --> 00:48:56,510
with quantum theory, Jim
Hartle and I realized

725
00:48:56,510 --> 00:48:59,930
that time can behave like
another direction in space

726
00:48:59,930 --> 00:49:01,850
under extreme conditions.

727
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:13,750
This means one can get rid of the problem

728
00:49:13,750 --> 00:49:16,850
of time having a
beginning in a similar way

729
00:49:16,850 --> 00:49:19,670
in which we got rid of
the edge of the world.

730
00:49:24,430 --> 00:49:27,040
Suppose the beginning of the universe

731
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:29,620
was like the South Pole of the Earth

732
00:49:29,620 --> 00:49:33,460
with degrees of latitude
playing the role of time.

733
00:49:41,720 --> 00:49:46,410
The universe would start as
a point at the South Pole.

734
00:49:46,410 --> 00:49:50,740
As one moves north, the
circles of constant latitude,

735
00:49:50,740 --> 00:49:54,680
representing the size of
the universe, would expand.

736
00:49:57,700 --> 00:50:01,400
To ask what happened before
the beginning of the universe

737
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,760
would become a meaningless question

738
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:07,270
because there is nothing
south of the South Pole.

739
00:50:15,010 --> 00:50:18,320
Time, as measured in degrees of latitude,

740
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:21,100
would have a beginning at the South Pole,

741
00:50:21,100 --> 00:50:24,640
but the South Pole is
much like any other point,

742
00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:27,080
at least so I have been told.

743
00:50:27,940 --> 00:50:32,160
I have been to Antarctica,
but not to the South Pole.

744
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:41,710
The same laws of nature
hold at the South Pole

745
00:50:41,710 --> 00:50:43,590
as in other places.

746
00:50:44,610 --> 00:50:47,140
This would remove the age-old objection

747
00:50:47,140 --> 00:50:49,720
to the universe having a beginning,

748
00:50:49,720 --> 00:50:53,320
that it would be a place where
the normal laws broke down.

749
00:50:54,508 --> 00:50:56,438
The beginning of the universe

750
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:59,450
would be governed by the laws of science.

751
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:08,460
The picture Jim Hartle and I developed

752
00:51:08,460 --> 00:51:11,980
of the spontaneous quantum
creation of the universe

753
00:51:11,980 --> 00:51:15,130
would be a bit like the
formation of bubbles of steam

754
00:51:15,130 --> 00:51:16,810
in boiling water.

755
00:51:26,620 --> 00:51:29,240
The idea is that the
most probable histories

756
00:51:29,240 --> 00:51:33,470
of the universe would be like
the surfaces of the bubbles.

757
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:42,470
Many small bubbles would appear
and then disappear again.

758
00:51:43,430 --> 00:51:47,410
These would correspond to mini
universes that would expand,

759
00:51:47,410 --> 00:51:51,400
but would collapse again while
still of microscopic size.

760
00:51:58,010 --> 00:52:01,020
They are possible alternative universes,

761
00:52:01,020 --> 00:52:03,080
but they are not of much interest

762
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,260
since they do not last long enough

763
00:52:05,260 --> 00:52:09,740
to develop galaxies and stars,
let alone intelligent life.

764
00:52:19,110 --> 00:52:21,910
A few of the little bubbles, however,

765
00:52:21,910 --> 00:52:23,770
with grow to a certain size

766
00:52:23,770 --> 00:52:26,370
at which they are safe from recollapse.

767
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:31,390
They will continue to expand
at an ever-increasing rate

768
00:52:31,390 --> 00:52:33,680
and will form the bubbles we see.

769
00:52:40,030 --> 00:52:41,920
They will correspond to universes

770
00:52:41,923 --> 00:52:45,913
that would start off expanding
at an ever-increasing rate.

771
00:52:46,950 --> 00:52:48,980
This is called inflation,

772
00:52:48,980 --> 00:52:52,150
like the way prices go up every year.

773
00:52:53,849 --> 00:52:56,679
(audience laughs)

774
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:16,110
The world record for inflation

775
00:53:16,110 --> 00:53:19,600
was in Germany after the first world war.

776
00:53:20,530 --> 00:53:23,490
Prices rose by a factor of 10 million

777
00:53:23,490 --> 00:53:25,760
in a period of 18 months,

778
00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:29,430
but that was nothing compared to inflation

779
00:53:29,430 --> 00:53:31,220
in the early universe.

780
00:53:32,090 --> 00:53:33,610
The universe expanded

781
00:53:33,610 --> 00:53:36,350
by a factor of million trillion trillion

782
00:53:36,350 --> 00:53:38,360
in a tiny fraction of a second.

783
00:53:49,771 --> 00:53:52,211
Unlike inflation in prices,

784
00:53:52,210 --> 00:53:55,960
inflation in the early
universe was a very good thing.

785
00:53:56,970 --> 00:54:00,760
It produced a very large
and uniform universe,

786
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:02,450
just as we observe.

787
00:54:07,790 --> 00:54:11,120
However, it would not
be completely uniform.

788
00:54:12,140 --> 00:54:14,380
In the sum over histories,

789
00:54:14,380 --> 00:54:17,260
histories that are very slightly irregular

790
00:54:17,260 --> 00:54:20,080
will have almost as high probabilities

791
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:23,260
as the completely uniform
and regular history.

792
00:54:33,970 --> 00:54:37,390
The theory therefore predicts
that the early universe

793
00:54:37,390 --> 00:54:40,470
is likely to be slightly non-uniform.

794
00:54:41,490 --> 00:54:45,090
These irregularities would
produce small variations

795
00:54:45,090 --> 00:54:47,860
in the intensity of the
microwave background

796
00:54:47,860 --> 00:54:49,710
from different directions.

797
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:59,140
The microwave background has been observed

798
00:54:59,140 --> 00:55:02,870
by the map satellite and
was found to have exactly

799
00:55:02,870 --> 00:55:05,470
the kind of variations predicted.

800
00:55:06,490 --> 00:55:08,740
So we know we are on the right lines.

801
00:55:21,780 --> 00:55:24,730
The irregularities in the early universe

802
00:55:24,730 --> 00:55:26,430
will mean that some regions

803
00:55:26,430 --> 00:55:29,390
will have slightly higher
density than others.

804
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:39,020
The gravitational attraction
of the extra density

805
00:55:39,020 --> 00:55:41,830
will slow the expansion of the region

806
00:55:41,830 --> 00:55:44,730
and can eventually cause
the region to collapse

807
00:55:44,730 --> 00:55:47,060
to form galaxies and stars.

808
00:55:52,430 --> 00:55:55,340
So look well at the map
of the microwave sky.

809
00:55:56,710 --> 00:56:00,520
It is the blueprint for all
the structure in the universe.

810
00:56:09,250 --> 00:56:12,130
We are the product of quantum fluctuations

811
00:56:12,130 --> 00:56:14,300
in the very early universe.

812
00:56:15,150 --> 00:56:17,450
God really does play dice.

813
00:56:28,410 --> 00:56:31,320
We have made tremendous
progress in cosmology

814
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:33,340
in the last 100 years.

815
00:56:34,380 --> 00:56:36,920
The general theory of relativity

816
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:40,370
and the discovery of the
expansion of the universe

817
00:56:40,370 --> 00:56:43,410
shattered the old picture
of an ever-existing

818
00:56:43,410 --> 00:56:44,870
and everlasting universe.

819
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:54,030
Instead, general relativity
predicted that the universe

820
00:56:54,027 --> 00:56:57,667
and time itself would
begin in the Big Bang.

821
00:56:58,720 --> 00:56:59,960
It also predicted

822
00:56:59,960 --> 00:57:03,070
that time would come to
an end in black holes.

823
00:57:18,340 --> 00:57:21,520
The discovery of the
cosmic microwave background

824
00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:26,520
and observations of black holes
support these conclusions.

825
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:31,510
This is a profound change in
our picture of the universe

826
00:57:31,510 --> 00:57:33,300
and of reality itself.

827
00:57:40,350 --> 00:57:43,360
Although the general theory of relativity

828
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:45,810
predicted that the universe must have come

829
00:57:45,810 --> 00:57:49,060
from a period of high
curvature in the past,

830
00:57:49,060 --> 00:57:51,350
it could not predict how the universe

831
00:57:51,350 --> 00:57:53,420
would emerge from the Big Bang.

832
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:57,190
Thus, general relativity on its own

833
00:57:57,194 --> 00:58:00,784
cannot answer the central
question in cosmology,

834
00:58:00,780 --> 00:58:03,600
why is the universe the way it is?

835
00:58:09,630 --> 00:58:12,130
However, if general relativity

836
00:58:12,130 --> 00:58:14,400
is combined with quantum theory,

837
00:58:14,400 --> 00:58:18,390
it may be possible to predict
how the universe would start.

838
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:22,960
It would initially expand
at an ever-increasing rate.

839
00:58:28,510 --> 00:58:32,090
During this so-called inflationary period,

840
00:58:32,090 --> 00:58:34,270
the marriage of the two theories predicted

841
00:58:34,270 --> 00:58:37,360
that small fluctuations would develop

842
00:58:37,363 --> 00:58:41,043
and lead to the formation
of galaxies, stars,

843
00:58:41,042 --> 00:58:44,712
and all the other
structure in the universe.

844
00:58:51,305 --> 00:58:55,795
This is confirmed by observations
of small non-uniformities

845
00:58:55,793 --> 00:58:58,473
in the cosmic microwave background

846
00:58:58,470 --> 00:59:01,540
with exactly the predicted properties.

847
00:59:02,570 --> 00:59:04,910
So it seems we are on our way

848
00:59:04,910 --> 00:59:07,970
to understanding the
origin of the universe,

849
00:59:07,970 --> 00:59:10,380
though much more work will be needed.

850
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:17,740
A new window on the very early universe

851
00:59:17,740 --> 00:59:21,420
will be opened when we can
detect gravitational waves

852
00:59:21,420 --> 00:59:25,450
by accurately measuring the
distances between spacecraft.

853
00:59:30,760 --> 00:59:33,890
Gravitational waves propagate freely to us

854
00:59:33,890 --> 00:59:38,890
from earliest times, unimpeded
by any intervening material.

855
00:59:39,660 --> 00:59:42,930
By contrast, light is scattered many times

856
00:59:42,930 --> 00:59:44,580
by free electrons.

857
00:59:45,630 --> 00:59:49,730
The scattering goes on until
the electrons freeze out

858
00:59:49,730 --> 00:59:53,410
when the universe is 300,000 years old.

859
01:00:01,290 --> 01:00:04,940
Despite having had some great successes,

860
01:00:04,940 --> 01:00:06,560
not everything is solved.

861
01:00:07,610 --> 01:00:11,340
We do not yet have a good
theoretical understanding

862
01:00:11,340 --> 01:00:15,090
of the observations that the
expansion of the universe

863
01:00:15,090 --> 01:00:19,950
is accelerating again after a
long period of slowing down.

864
01:00:24,140 --> 01:00:26,710
Without such an understanding,

865
01:00:26,710 --> 01:00:30,210
we cannot be sure of the
future of the universe.

866
01:00:31,190 --> 01:00:34,840
Will it continue to expand forever?

867
01:00:34,840 --> 01:00:38,160
Is inflation a law of nature,

868
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:41,500
or will the universe
eventually collapse again?

869
01:00:47,970 --> 01:00:52,500
New observational results
and theoretical advances

870
01:00:52,500 --> 01:00:54,170
are coming in rapidly.

871
01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:59,060
Cosmology is a very
exciting and active subject.

872
01:01:00,100 --> 01:01:04,020
We are getting close to
answering the age-old questions.

873
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:08,930
Why are we here?

874
01:01:08,930 --> 01:01:10,360
Where did we come from?

875
01:01:16,350 --> 01:01:18,450
Thank you for listening to me.

876
01:01:20,694 --> 01:01:23,694
(audience applauds)

877
01:01:40,785 --> 01:01:43,785
(audience applauds)

878
01:01:56,940 --> 01:02:01,220
- Professor Hawking has agreed
to answer some questions,

879
01:02:01,220 --> 01:02:06,220
and so we gathered a few of
the most popular questions

880
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:09,400
and there were five.

881
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:13,240
And my job is to read all five questions,

882
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:16,130
and he will answer all five questions

883
01:02:16,130 --> 01:02:18,680
with one extended answer.

884
01:02:20,230 --> 01:02:24,890
Some of these questions bear
on things he's already said,

885
01:02:24,890 --> 01:02:25,770
but you have to realize

886
01:02:25,770 --> 01:02:28,170
the questions were made
in advance of his talk.

887
01:02:28,170 --> 01:02:33,170
Question one, do we know for
certain how the universe began?

888
01:02:35,130 --> 01:02:37,660
Question two, the problem for most people

889
01:02:37,660 --> 01:02:39,520
in trying to grasp all this

890
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:42,020
is if the Big Bang began at all,

891
01:02:43,610 --> 01:02:45,390
what was before the Big Bang?

892
01:02:47,080 --> 01:02:49,000
I'm afraid I'm gonna end up in hell.

893
01:02:48,998 --> 01:02:52,368
(audience laughs)

894
01:02:52,370 --> 01:02:57,370
Question three is how will
the universe end and when?

895
01:02:59,650 --> 01:03:03,830
Question four, you say
your goal is simple,

896
01:03:03,830 --> 01:03:06,630
a complete understanding of the universe,

897
01:03:06,627 --> 01:03:08,317
and the question goes on to say

898
01:03:08,320 --> 01:03:13,320
why is it as it is and
why does it exist at all?

899
01:03:13,790 --> 01:03:17,520
How close are we and
can science ever answer,

900
01:03:17,520 --> 01:03:19,350
and this is in big letters,

901
01:03:19,350 --> 01:03:22,570
why it exists in the first place?

902
01:03:23,680 --> 01:03:26,740
And question five is a very good one.

903
01:03:26,740 --> 01:03:30,360
What are the pressing big
questions that are left?

904
01:03:31,560 --> 01:03:32,760
Professor Hawking.

905
01:03:36,634 --> 01:03:39,304
(machine beeps)

906
01:04:33,230 --> 01:04:35,670
- [Stephen] We are thoroughly
sure the universe began

907
01:04:35,670 --> 01:04:38,670
with a period of accelerating expansion.

908
01:04:46,300 --> 01:04:48,390
This is called inflation

909
01:04:48,390 --> 01:04:51,150
because the size of the universe grows

910
01:04:51,150 --> 01:04:54,430
in the way prices go up in some countries.

911
01:05:01,440 --> 01:05:04,120
The inflation in the early universe

912
01:05:04,120 --> 01:05:07,440
is much more rapid than
our financial inflation.

913
01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:10,020
The universe expanded

914
01:05:10,020 --> 01:05:13,000
by a factor of a million trillion trillion

915
01:05:13,000 --> 01:05:15,450
in a tiny fraction of a second.

916
01:05:20,180 --> 01:05:24,370
Inflation in the size of the
universe is a good thing,

917
01:05:24,370 --> 01:05:27,020
unlike inflation in prices.

918
01:05:33,350 --> 01:05:37,010
It would produce a very large
and very smooth universe

919
01:05:37,010 --> 01:05:39,800
with just the right amount of irregularity

920
01:05:39,800 --> 01:05:43,920
to account for the formation
of galaxies, stars,

921
01:05:43,920 --> 01:05:46,460
and ultimately, human beings.

922
01:05:49,230 --> 01:05:51,460
How did this inflation start?

923
01:05:54,410 --> 01:05:58,280
How can one describe the universe
at the beginning of time?

924
01:06:02,270 --> 01:06:05,170
I now think I can show how the universe

925
01:06:05,170 --> 01:06:08,180
was spontaneously created out of nothing

926
01:06:08,180 --> 01:06:10,620
according to the laws of science.

927
01:06:13,570 --> 01:06:17,430
The universe exists
because general relativity

928
01:06:17,427 --> 01:06:20,517
and quantum theory allow
and require it to exist.

929
01:06:23,500 --> 01:06:27,210
If I'm right, the
universe is self-contained

930
01:06:27,210 --> 01:06:29,310
and governed by science alone.

931
01:06:32,120 --> 01:06:36,080
In time, we can hope to
understand it completely.

932
01:06:38,660 --> 01:06:43,320
We have long enough as the
universe should last forever.

933
01:06:43,324 --> 01:06:46,154
(audience laughs)

934
01:06:48,440 --> 01:06:51,000
Eternity is a very long time,

935
01:06:51,000 --> 01:06:54,540
especially towards the
end, as Woody Allen said.

936
01:06:55,398 --> 01:06:58,228
(audience laughs)

937
01:07:00,498 --> 01:07:01,328
Thank you.

938
01:07:02,786 --> 01:07:05,786
(audience applauds)