File:MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC (IA modelingtheimpac1094562847).pdf
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Summary[edit]
MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ( ) | ||
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Author |
Carter, Robert B. |
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Title |
MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC |
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Publisher |
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School |
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Description |
A dynamical-statistical modeling approach was used to investigate climate change impacts on tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the western North Pacific (WNP). Reanalysis data and climate model projections were analyzed for 1981–2050 to identify both past and future impacts. The projections came from the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). The primary analysis tool was a statistical model that uses information about large-scale environmental factors (LSEFs) to predict the probability of TC formation. This model was built using data on the LSEFs and TC formations during the last several decades. We forced the statistical model with the reanalysis LSEFs and with the climate model LSEFs outputs from the climate model to produce formation probability analyses for 1981–2018. The two methods for calculating the probabilities both showed increasing trends during this period for the central WNP region in which most WNP formations occur. These trends are consistent with the observed increase in TC formations in this region during this period. The climate model probabilities based on long-term mean, El Niño, and La Niña LSEFs for 1981–2018 were also consistent with observed TC formations. For future decades, the climate model projections showed multi-decadal increases in both TC formation probabilities and the WNP area in which TC formation is most probable. We recommend continued use of dynamical-statistical methods as observational data and climate models improve. Subjects: tropical cyclone; climate change; statistical modelling; large scale environmental factors; LSEF; Western Pacific; Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP; climate system predictors; hindcast; tropical cyclone formation areas; Climate Forecast System Reanalysis; Climate Forecast System version 2; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5; CMIP5; Community Climate System Model version 4 |
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Language | English | |
Publication date | June 2019 | |
Current location |
IA Collections: navalpostgraduateschoollibrary; fedlink |
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Accession number |
modelingtheimpac1094562847 |
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Source | ||
Permission (Reusing this file) |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. |
Licensing[edit]
Public domainPublic domainfalsefalse |
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This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights. |
https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/PDMCreative Commons Public Domain Mark 1.0falsefalse
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Short title | MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC |
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Image title | |
Author | Carter, Robert B. |
Software used | Carter, Robert B. |
Conversion program | Adobe PDF Library 15.0 |
Encrypted | no |
Page size |
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Version of PDF format | 1.4 |